Updated on Tuesday 19 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
US 90347 (+785) 1508308 (+21551) 283178 (+10913) 1134783 (+9853)
United Kingdom 34876 (+160) 247709 (+2714) 1090 (+32) 211743 (+2522)
Italy 32007 (+99) 225886 (+451) 127326 (+2150) 66553 (-1798)
France 28242 (+131) 180051 (+358) 61843 (+516) 89966 (-289)
Spain 27709 (+146) 231606 (+908) 150376 (+3930) 53521 (-3168)
Brazil 16853 (+735) 255368 (+14288) 100459 (+6337) 138056 (+7216)
Belgium 9080 (+28) 55559 (+279) 14657 (+27) 31822 (+224)
Germany 8003 (+41) 176551 (+182) 155041 (+1030) 13507 (-889)
Iran 7057 (+69) 122492 (+2294) 95661 (+1197) 19774 (+1028)
Canada 5960 (+57) 79411 (+1079) 39251 (+688) 34200 (+334)
Netherlands 5713 (+14) 44341 (+146) 167 (+0) 38461 (+132)
Mexico 5332 (+155) 51633 (+2414) 35388 (+2059) 10913 (+200)
China 4638 (+0) 84063 (+9) 79310 (+4) 115 (+5)
Turkey 4171 (+31) 150593 (+1158) 111577 (+1615) 34845 (-488)
Sweden 3698 (+19) 30377 (+234) 4971 (+0) 21708 (+215)
India 3156 (+131) 100328 (+4630) 39233 (+2438) 57939 (+2061)
Ecuador 2799 (+63) 33582 (+400) 3433 (+0) 27350 (+337)
Peru 2789 (+141) 94933 (+2660) 30306 (+1685) 61838 (+834)
Russia 2722 (+91) 290678 (+8926) 70209 (+2836) 217747 (+5999)
Switzerland 1886 (+5) 30597 (+10) 27600 (+100) 1111 (-95)
Ireland 1547 (+4) 24200 (+88) 19470 (+0) 3183 (+84)
Portugal 1231 (+13) 29209 (+173) 6430 (+1794) 21548 (-1634)
Indonesia 1191 (+43) 18010 (+496) 4324 (+195) 12495 (+258)
Romania 1120 (+13) 17036 (+165) 9930 (+40) 5986 (+112)
Poland 936 (+11) 18885 (+356) 7628 (+177) 10321 (+168)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 313843 (+3296) 4717880 (+88314) 1707565 (+52908)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 19 May 2020 315695 ( +3165) 4748913 ( +69619) 1725872 ( +38397)
Wed 20 May 2020 318659 ( +2964) 4815607 ( +66695) 1762763 ( +36891)
Thu 21 May 2020 321428 ( +2768) 4879304 ( +63697) 1798070 ( +35307)
Fri 22 May 2020 324006 ( +2578) 4939958 ( +60654) 1831735 ( +33665)
Sat 23 May 2020 326401 ( +2395) 4997553 ( +57595) 1863720 ( +31985)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 4638 (+0) 84063 (+9) 79310 (+4)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 19 May 2020 4623 ( +0) 84044 ( +1) 78060 ( +0)
Wed 20 May 2020 4623 ( +0) 84045 ( +1) 78061 ( +0)
Thu 21 May 2020 4623 ( +0) 84046 ( +1) 78061 ( +0)
Fri 22 May 2020 4623 ( +0) 84047 ( +1) 78061 ( +0)
Sat 23 May 2020 4623 ( +0) 84048 ( +1) 78061 ( +0)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 27709 (+146) 231606 (+908) 150376 (+3930)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 19 May 2020 27498 ( +56) 228777 ( +86) 149142 ( +984)
Wed 20 May 2020 27548 ( +50) 228847 ( +71) 150032 ( +890)
Thu 21 May 2020 27593 ( +45) 228906 ( +59) 150836 ( +803)
Fri 22 May 2020 27633 ( +40) 228957 ( +50) 151559 ( +724)
Sat 23 May 2020 27668 ( +36) 228999 ( +43) 152210 ( +651)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 32007 (+99) 225886 (+451) 127326 (+2150)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 19 May 2020 31727 ( +80) 224586 ( +383) 127227 ( +2173)
Wed 20 May 2020 31800 ( +73) 224934 ( +348) 129320 ( +2093)
Thu 21 May 2020 31866 ( +66) 225250 ( +316) 131332 ( +2012)
Fri 22 May 2020 31927 ( +60) 225537 ( +287) 133263 ( +1931)
Sat 23 May 2020 31981 ( +55) 225797 ( +260) 135113 ( +1850)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 34876 (+160) 247709 (+2714) 1090 (+32)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 19 May 2020 34831 ( +194) 240113 ( +1555) 1358 ( +46)
Wed 20 May 2020 35005 ( +175) 241545 ( +1432) 1406 ( +48)
Thu 21 May 2020 35163 ( +157) 242861 ( +1316) 1455 ( +49)
Fri 22 May 2020 35304 ( +141) 244069 ( +1209) 1506 ( +51)
Sat 23 May 2020 35431 ( +127) 245179 ( +1109) 1559 ( +53)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 90347 (+785) 1508308 (+21551) 283178 (+10913)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 19 May 2020 90609 ( +975) 1498951 ( +13204) 280624 ( +5315)
Wed 20 May 2020 91539 ( +930) 1511145 ( +12194) 285655 ( +5032)
Thu 21 May 2020 92425 ( +886) 1522381 ( +11235) 290406 ( +4751)
Fri 22 May 2020 93269 ( +844) 1532710 ( +10329) 294882 ( +4476)
Sat 23 May 2020 94073 ( +803) 1542186 ( +9477) 299089 ( +4207)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 28242 (+131) 180051 (+358) 61843 (+516)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 19 May 2020 27848 ( +83) 178258 ( +99) 61188 ( +299)
Wed 20 May 2020 27922 ( +75) 178345 ( +87) 61460 ( +272)
Thu 21 May 2020 27990 ( +68) 178421 ( +76) 61706 ( +247)
Fri 22 May 2020 28051 ( +61) 178488 ( +66) 61929 ( +223)
Sat 23 May 2020 28106 ( +55) 178546 ( +58) 62131 ( +202)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 8003 (+41) 176551 (+182) 155041 (+1030)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 19 May 2020 8056 ( +37) 169183 ( +56) 154631 ( +832)
Wed 20 May 2020 8090 ( +35) 169232 ( +49) 155408 ( +777)
Thu 21 May 2020 8122 ( +32) 169275 ( +43) 156133 ( +725)
Fri 22 May 2020 8152 ( +30) 169313 ( +38) 156809 ( +676)
Sat 23 May 2020 8179 ( +27) 169346 ( +33) 157439 ( +630)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 5713 (+14) 44341 (+146) 167 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 19 May 2020 5687 ( +15) 43718 ( +60) nan ( +nan)
Wed 20 May 2020 5701 ( +14) 43772 ( +54) nan ( +nan)
Thu 21 May 2020 5713 ( +12) 43820 ( +48) nan ( +nan)
Fri 22 May 2020 5724 ( +11) 43863 ( +43) nan ( +nan)
Sat 23 May 2020 5733 ( +10) 43901 ( +38) nan ( +nan)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 9080 (+28) 55559 (+279) 14657 (+27)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 19 May 2020 9120 ( +35) 53872 ( +78) 14561 ( +70)
Wed 20 May 2020 9151 ( +31) 53941 ( +70) 14624 ( +64)
Thu 21 May 2020 9179 ( +28) 54003 ( +62) 14681 ( +57)
Fri 22 May 2020 9203 ( +25) 54059 ( +55) 14733 ( +52)
Sat 23 May 2020 9225 ( +22) 54108 ( +49) 14780 ( +47)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 3698 (+19) 30377 (+234) 4971 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 19 May 2020 3724 ( +42) 30835 ( +427) 5135 ( +2)
Wed 20 May 2020 3763 ( +40) 31243 ( +408) 5136 ( +1)
Thu 21 May 2020 3801 ( +38) 31632 ( +389) 5137 ( +1)
Fri 22 May 2020 3837 ( +36) 32002 ( +370) 5137 ( +0)
Sat 23 May 2020 3871 ( +34) 32353 ( +351) 5138 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 936 (+11) 18885 (+356) 7628 (+177)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 19 May 2020 937 ( +11) 19087 ( +283) 7821 ( +215)
Wed 20 May 2020 947 ( +11) 19358 ( +271) 8029 ( +208)
Thu 21 May 2020 958 ( +10) 19616 ( +258) 8229 ( +201)
Fri 22 May 2020 967 ( +10) 19861 ( +245) 8423 ( +193)
Sat 23 May 2020 976 ( +9) 20093 ( +232) 8608 ( +186)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 1886 (+5) 30597 (+10) 27600 (+100)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 19 May 2020 1878 ( +2) 30314 ( +8) 27398 ( +54)
Wed 20 May 2020 1880 ( +2) 30321 ( +7) 27445 ( +47)
Thu 21 May 2020 1881 ( +2) 30327 ( +6) 27486 ( +41)
Fri 22 May 2020 1883 ( +1) 30332 ( +5) 27522 ( +36)
Sat 23 May 2020 1884 ( +1) 30336 ( +4) 27553 ( +31)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 16853 (+735) 255368 (+14288) 100459 (+6337)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 19 May 2020 17530 ( +696) 266152 ( +12521) 98394 ( +3173)
Wed 20 May 2020 18216 ( +686) 278828 ( +12676) 101461 ( +3067)
Thu 21 May 2020 18889 ( +673) 291619 ( +12791) 104413 ( +2952)
Fri 22 May 2020 19547 ( +658) 304482 ( +12863) 107243 ( +2830)
Sat 23 May 2020 20187 ( +640) 317375 ( +12892) 109946 ( +2703)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 7057 (+69) 122492 (+2294) 95661 (+1197)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 19 May 2020 6970 ( +25) 124358 ( +2007) 92028 ( +410)
Wed 20 May 2020 6993 ( +23) 126374 ( +2016) 92409 ( +381)
Thu 21 May 2020 7014 ( +21) 128388 ( +2014) 92763 ( +354)
Fri 22 May 2020 7034 ( +20) 130391 ( +2003) 93091 ( +328)
Sat 23 May 2020 7052 ( +18) 132373 ( +1982) 93395 ( +304)

Comparison of different countries

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.